According to Andre Dragosch, global money supply is at a new all-time high, challenging simple liquidity-driven explanations for recent BTC moves, Source: Andre Dragosch on X, Dec 30, 2025. He states that the historical correlation between BTC and central bank liquidity measures such as net liquidity and bank reserves has been rather low, Source: Andre Dragosch on X, Dec 30, 2025. Based on this, traders should be cautious about using central bank liquidity as a standalone signal for BTC direction and consider multi-factor frameworks instead, Source: Andre Dragosch on X, Dec 30, 2025. In practice, this suggests prioritizing market-specific drivers over assumed tight beta to central bank balance sheets when building BTC risk models, Source: Andre Dragosch on X, Dec 30, 2025.

According to Nic Carter, there is no effective definition of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) that does not also encompass the reserve balances that commercial banks hold at the Federal Reserve. Carter's analysis, shared via a tweet, suggests that this existing financial infrastructure effectively functions as a wholesale CBDC. This perspective challenges the common narrative around the future implementation of a digital dollar and implies that a form of CBDC is already integrated into the U.S. banking system, a critical consideration for traders evaluating the potential impact of new digital currencies on assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market.